Abu Wabu

Sayeth the July 2007 NIE:

We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qa’ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11. These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11.

That's the part of this report you did not and will not see in the papers or hear on the news.

Paul Mirengoff:

The NIE judges that al Qaeda is exploiting the situation in Iraq for recruiting purposes, but it expresses no view on the extent to which al Qaeda could exploit our defeat in Iraq for the same purpose.

Moreover, it's counter-intuitive to suppose that a U.S. defeat would be a recruiting setback for al Qaeda. Such a defeat would give al Qaeda recruiters the best of all possible pitches -- (1) the U.S. is a would-be crusader nation and (2) the U.S. is weak. We know from al Qaeda's successful approach to recruiting in the 1990s, which exploited our withdrawal from Somalia, how potent the second claim can be.

In short, as John explained, the [Washington] Post's suggestion that the NIE report somehow discredits either the administration's efforts in Iraq or its broader anti-terror campaign is fantasy masquerading as analysis.